Tools & Accessories Industry Report

September 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.7% 0.6% 448 0.00 0.040 0.00 0.00 0.110 0.000 0% -1.240
first_quart -0.1% 1.3% 12600 8.32 0.390 0.75 6.37 0.530 0.000 0% 0.151
median 0.1% 1.8% 310000 12.90 0.700 1.34 13.40 0.830 1.000 1.7% 0.488
mean 0.1% 2.1% 475000 16.40 0.891 1.81 20.30 0.976 0.728 1.7% 0.465
third_quart 0.2% 2.4% 795000 18.70 1.090 2.28 20.60 1.400 1.000 2.7% 0.817
max 2.2% 17.5% 2770000 216.00 4.020 9.49 536.00 3.340 1.000 8.6% 1.930



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1322
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2221


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0159
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0215




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
TTC 2021 Q2 $109.93 114.55% 90.29%
ROLL 2021 Q2 $197.53 98.48% 71.78%
LECO 2021 Q2 $128.06 93.72% 118.29%
TBLT 2021 Q2 $0.78 82.56% 171.15%
GFF 2021 Q2 $26.69 57.32% 30.79%
KMT 2021 Q2 $39.14 54.7% 49.43%
EML 2021 Q2 $29.84 46.52% 53.44%
SNA 2021 Q2 $239.36 44.07% 41.24%
TKR 2021 Q2 $84.64 39.48% 22.08%
PFIN 2021 Q2 $6.44 31.02% 17.21%
SWK 2021 Q2 $207.35 29.01% 1.06%
CVR 2021 Q2 $25.98 28.56% 30.18%
SCX 2021 Q2 $7.89 -5.64% -5.89%