Tools & Accessories Industry Report
September 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -1.7% | 0.6% | 448 | 0.00 | 0.040 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0% | -1.240 |
| first_quart | -0.1% | 1.3% | 12600 | 8.32 | 0.390 | 0.75 | 6.37 | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.151 |
| median | 0.1% | 1.8% | 310000 | 12.90 | 0.700 | 1.34 | 13.40 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 1.7% | 0.488 |
| mean | 0.1% | 2.1% | 475000 | 16.40 | 0.891 | 1.81 | 20.30 | 0.976 | 0.728 | 1.7% | 0.465 |
| third_quart | 0.2% | 2.4% | 795000 | 18.70 | 1.090 | 2.28 | 20.60 | 1.400 | 1.000 | 2.7% | 0.817 |
| max | 2.2% | 17.5% | 2770000 | 216.00 | 4.020 | 9.49 | 536.00 | 3.340 | 1.000 | 8.6% | 1.930 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 5
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.1322
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2221
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0159
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0215
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTC | 2021 Q2 | $109.93 | 114.55% | 90.29% |
| ROLL | 2021 Q2 | $197.53 | 98.48% | 71.78% |
| LECO | 2021 Q2 | $128.06 | 93.72% | 118.29% |
| TBLT | 2021 Q2 | $0.78 | 82.56% | 171.15% |
| GFF | 2021 Q2 | $26.69 | 57.32% | 30.79% |
| KMT | 2021 Q2 | $39.14 | 54.7% | 49.43% |
| EML | 2021 Q2 | $29.84 | 46.52% | 53.44% |
| SNA | 2021 Q2 | $239.36 | 44.07% | 41.24% |
| TKR | 2021 Q2 | $84.64 | 39.48% | 22.08% |
| PFIN | 2021 Q2 | $6.44 | 31.02% | 17.21% |
| SWK | 2021 Q2 | $207.35 | 29.01% | 1.06% |
| CVR | 2021 Q2 | $25.98 | 28.56% | 30.18% |
| SCX | 2021 Q2 | $7.89 | -5.64% | -5.89% |
